Wikileaks on Peak Oil
If you’re even vaguely familiar with my blog, you’ll be aware that I bang on about Peak Oil quite a lot. One of the things I repeat again and again (and again) is that since the mid-1980s we have been comprehensively lied to about the size of global oil reserves. I won’t go over the issues surrounding overstating reserves again, as I covered them quite recently (the second of those “agains”), but I will stress the incredible importance of this issue. Official reserve estimates predict production capacity will be unable to meet demand in somewhere between 20 and 40 years. Almost everyone who has tried to look beyond those official estimates comes to the disturbing conclusion that production shortfalls will be upon us pretty much any day now.
Today, as more Wikileaks cables were made public, comes confirmation that Saudi Arabia has been overstating reserves by as much as 40%. This is one of those cases where being proved right brings no satisfaction, but rather a deep sinking feeling. Especially since it’s worth pointing out that there’s very little doubt that this revelation also applies to every other member of OPEC. It’s very grim news indeed and pretty much puts an end to any chances of “a return to growth”.
Given that, in practical terms, economic growth is now a thing of the past*, we need to focus on three things. And we need to do so urgently.
- What resources remain need to be poured into sustainability projects. Renewable energy infrastructure, localisation of food production, radical scaling back of consumption;
- The replacement of a growth-centric economy and debt-driven financial system with a system that can cope with — even thrive in — an environment where economic activity is minimised rather than maximised;
- We must actively pursue ecological wisdom as an absolute priority — both in the obvious sense of environmental protection, but more importantly in the sense of understanding and acknowledging our place within the natural systems of our planet. The world is barrelling towards a crisis, and if we do not wake up to our grievously flawed epistemology, we simply will not survive it.
* which is not to say there won’t be anomalies and brief spikes on the downward trend.
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February 9th, 2011 | 8:30am
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Hi Jim. I’ve become obsessed with peaking fossil fuels myself recently, and I’m fond of the three points you make and basically agree with them. I just started a Permaculture Design course in Green Works in Dublin, which is good stuff. I’m no greenfingers (I’m a screenwriter and director), but the principles of permaculture, as you may know, go beyond merely plant and forest life.
It struck me recently (Peak Oil awareness hit me only last October) that the very narrative form on which I’ve based my life, cinema, is itself in many ways a product of the fossil fuel age. Not that cinema will (definitely) disappear with our access to fossil fuels, or that its origin was fossil fuel dependent, but it’s likely if not certain that the cinematic form, in production and exhibition terms and so on, will be vastly different in the post-peak age. What do you reckon? As I amn’t marquee talent anyway at this stage, should I just quit? (I have no intention of quitting, it’s that the question of the very form’s sustainability intrigues me).
Nice blog by the way.
February 16th, 2011 | 4:22am
by VanP
Hi Van, thanks for the kind words.
I first encountered the idea of Peak Oil back in the 90s and have seen it go from a piece of ridiculous fringe nonsense to an (almost) mainstream idea. Frustratingly, despite that transformation… despite the fact that what was once a lunatic voice in the wilderness is now the voice of reason… very little is actually being done to deal with the situation.
When the Hirsch Report came out a few years ago, it concluded that a crash programme to mitigate the effects of peak oil would have to be implemented 20 years before shortages arose. Otherwise global civilisation would experience a complete systemic collapse. This was the US Dept. of Energy! Not a bunch of pot-smoking hippies in a field. It was backed up with a report by the US Army of all people, that reached roughly the same conclusion.
And yet here we are, seven years later, and with a very few exceptions (Scandinavia most notably) nobody is doing anything about it.
A permaculture course is definitely a positive step for any individual to take right now, but in truth we need a collective response. The problems are systemic and must be addressed as such. Unfortunately, we’re about to witness a farcical election where we’ll put a bunch of business-as-usual bozos into power. I don’t have any faith in the political system to deal with the real problems of unsustainability that we face, but it’s still soul-destroying to watch the electorate blithely ignore those real problems and put their hope in empty suits and corporate mouthpieces.
February 22nd, 2011 | 12:38am
by Jim Bliss
I have a comment/question related with climate change. How does that affect global warming? Should we assume that, like it or not, there will be a reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases? Can we assume that even despite the good intentions of the useless politicians, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will take place anyway?
March 1st, 2011 | 4:28pm
by Ricard
Hi Ricard, those are very good questions. On the surface, peak oil would seem to be a positive thing with respect to Climate Change. In reality, however, I fear it may be the exact opposite. But the truth is, nobody yet knows; it’s a massively complex issue with lots of interrelated factors.
For example, a drop in oil supply will almost certainly see a compensatory rise in coal consumption in the short-term at least (resulting in more carbon emissions, not less). Also, rising oil prices over the past decade have sparked a massive increase in biofuel production which often involves the clear-cutting of forests or the draining of bogs — both of which contribute significantly to Climate Change. Peak oil also seems certain to provoke the exploitation of tar sands and shale oils, which are environmentally worse than crude oil (in Climate Change and other terms).
Overall, I certainly wouldn’t be optimistic about peak oil being a boon to those of us concerned about Climate Change. It may make things a good deal worse (despite the likelihood that it will have some obvious and undeniable benefits).
March 3rd, 2011 | 11:13pm
by Jim Bliss
Look the whole sustainability thing is just imprudent, anyone who has been studying this thing knows its jut a bunch of pot heads, who will get themselves and others killed in the first 10 min of whats going to happen, even if your just misleading people to aid your own survival, it’s going to start suspicion very soon. It’s really hitting the fan, I know someone who knows all the facts, and thinks they can tough it out in the burbs, and even she is starting to ask for a lot of advice, It’s going to come out soon anyway so stop dissembling.
May 12th, 2011 | 5:41am
by Me