The European position on Brexit
Just a quick one — but too long for twitter.
I’ve been reading a bunch of UK news stories about that “having cake and eating it” note. The note is irrelevant, but all of the news stories about it — in fact almost all of the UK news stories about Brexit — appear to be framing the impending negotiations in completely the wrong light.
Brexit came as a shock to me. I suspect it came as a shock to most people reading this. But I believe there is a general consensus (even among Brexiteers) that the UK decision to leave was at least as much a political / cultural decision as it was an economic one. Certainly, many in the “Leave” camp would argue that the UK stands to be better-off, economically speaking, as a result of Brexit. I personally doubt that very much. But whether or not that might be true; it’s reasonable to say that political and cultural concerns played a part in the vote to leave.
However, the negotiations are being framed — by most UK media — in purely economic terms. At least from the European side. The media is well aware that British politics is going to shape the British position (whether or not free movement of people can be sold to the British people in the current political climate, should it be the only way to salvage access to the free market) but they seem to cast the European position as either being purely about balance sheets, or at best in terms of the internal politics of a particular nation (how will the current French election campaign affect Europe’s position, etc.)
What is being overlooked is that the negotiating team from the European side will not bring with them the politics of any specific nation. They will be tasked with getting the best deal for Europe. Yes, economics will take primacy as it often does. But the institutions of Europe will also bring their own very definite political agenda to the table. And that agenda will be to make the British option — leaving the EU — as unpalatable as possible to others.
The UK vote has created a huge amount of instability within Europe, at an already unstable time. The EU’s negotiators* will not be tasked with “getting the best deal for both sides”, though that will be the public stance of course. They will be quietly tasked with getting the best deal for Europe in a way that makes the entire thing look like a gigantic mistake for Britain. And ultimately I don’t think that’s going to end well for anyone.
* perhaps with the exception of any negotiator with an Irish accent, who will be desperate to make the process as smooth as possible thanks to the chaos a hard-border might cause us over here
Spot on. There’s childishness and denial at play here in the Leave prioritising of national self-interest. I wonder if we’re too mindful of news stories of the US acting in ‘national self-interest’, and forgetful of the fact that the US is (still just about) the most powerful country in the world – and so can act in its own self-interest sometimes without much pushback from other countries’ self-interests. Brexit seems to be driven by the old Imperial self-image, and is in denial about our fallen status and the fact that the EU as an entity is far more powerful than Britain, which we need more than it needs us. Maybe it’s the only way that Imperial self-image can be re-adjusted to present reality – through it being asserted forcefully, resulting in catastrophic humiliation.
I’m just fearful of the fact that the far right have lined up scapegoats for this self-inflicted humiliation so effectively.
December 2nd, 2016 | 9:56am
by Gyrus